Issue #77 Might Tariffs Be An Unexpected Gift For Your Business?

Written By: Brad Pedersen

It is hard to be in business over the past few weeks and not be caught up in the tumult created by the tariffs. And this is for good reason as it has directly or indirectly affected my companies and virtually every business owner I know in a meaningful way.

The entire economic landscape has undergone incredible changes recently. These on again/off again tariffs have created incredible uncertainty, setting off tremors across broader markets. Combine this with the exponential impact of AI transforming how work gets done, and you have a perfect storm of disruption in every industry.

While these sudden changes have created anxiety, what if this moment in time is actually not an obstacle but rather an opportunity?  

The Phoenix Rising from the Ashes

If you know my story, my first venture went bankrupt in 2006. After recapitalizing and investing another two years trying to fix it, we eventually saw the writing on the wall.

We completed the final bankruptcy of the company in 2009, but ahead of that I had started dreaming up a new business model. We launched this new venture, just weeks before the great recession. 

The timing seemed awful and to say I was stressed would be an understatement. I had several million dollars of personally guaranteed debt from the original venture, plus an additional $1M loan to launch the new company that had at 24% interest rate and was also personally guaranteed.

At the time of our launch, the market had come  to a screeching halt. I was terrified, and most nights I was laying in my bed in a cold sweat feeling the gravity and the pressure of the situation. However with no retreat possible, we had no choice but to advance.

Incredibly, it worked. The resulting company, Tech 4 Kids (the above picture taken with some of my team), was wildly successful and grew at an incredible pace. 

Looking back, launching during the great recession turned out to be a special gift. The market uncertainty meant our competition had shut down. Everything was on sale: buildings to rent, people to hire, development equipment, and advertising. Our timing became our unfair advantage, and we were able to rapidly build momentum that would eventually help us scale to become a 9-figure company. 

We've all heard that the Chinese word for crisis combines danger and opportunity. While these times are filled with potential landmines, we would be remiss not to see how these changes also open new doors. 

The Mass Extinction Event

Let’s acknowledge there is danger and we should be aware of the potential consequences of not taking this moment in time seriously. 

As founders, we have been told to be scrappy and nimble however once you start building some size and scale it is easy to lose these attributes.

Nature demonstrates for us that it's not the strongest or fastest that survive but those who adapt the quickest. Consider the Haast's eagle from New Zealand, the largest eagle ever to exist. It evolved to its enormous size because its primary food source was the moa, a giant flightless bird that could grow to 10 feet tall! When humans arrived on the island and hunted moas to extinction, the Haast eagle, unable to adapt to new food sources, quickly went extinct too.

The inability to adapt to the changing market place shows up again and again in business. The corporate graveyard is filled with examples of companies like Blockbuster and (More recently) Tupperware who, when faced with rapid change, failed to evolve.

They suffered from the Innovator’s Dilemma, where incumbents resist transformation, choosing to protect the core rather than plant the seeds of the next chapter. It’s understandable—but it’s also why many market leaders eventually get disrupted.

So knowing that being nimble is required and that as we navigate this time of uncertainty that it will also reveal new opportunities here is how I would think about your business and the market.

Nothing Fails Like Success

Nassim Taleb once noted, “Abundance is harder for us to handle than scarcity.” It’s a paradox that plays out in business more often than we care to admit. When resources are plentiful, our edge can begin to dull. Freedom from financial pressure often leads not to sharper execution, but to a subtle erosion of urgency and clarity.

The truth is, constraints can be a powerful catalyst for innovation. A certain degree of financial or operational tension keeps both individuals and organizations alert, intentional, and resilient. I’ve come to believe that the most resourceful leaders and teams aren’t those with unlimited access to capital, but those who are forced to think creatively because every decision carries weight.

If I had to place a bet on innovation and performance, I’d choose the startup founder bootstrapping with discipline over the well-funded venture running on autopilot.

In business, focus is forged in friction. Companies that are compelled to concentrate—on customer needs, efficient execution, and meaningful results—will almost always outperform those who have too much runway and not enough direction.

Never Lose Your Edge

I’ve spoken before about the power of active uneasiness—the mindset of being relentlessly hopeful about the future while remaining sober and alert to potential threats. It’s the tension between vision and vigilance, and I learned its importance the hard way.

Years ago, during the early years of my first venture, we experienced rapid growth. On the surface, everything looked like a success story in the making. But beneath the momentum was a dangerous dependency: nearly half our revenue flowed from a single customer. When that customer suddenly pulled the plug, our world was upended. We were like the Haast’s eagle—once a dominant predator, now grounded and starving as our primary food source disappeared.

It was a painful but essential lesson: no matter how good things look today, you must always be scanning the horizon. You have to ask, “How could my business be disrupted?” And more importantly, “What am I doing right now to prevent it?”

When you’re willing to face those uncomfortable questions—and act on the answers—you shift from reactive firefighting to proactive leadership. 

A Willingness To Replant

I live in a wine region known for producing world-class vintages. Two years ago, an unexpected deep freeze devastated the area—killing off vast swaths of mature vines. The loss was painful, but it created something few saw coming: clarity. 

With no choice but to start over, many growers chose to replant smarter—opting for varietals that are better suited to the climate trends of the future.  Yes, some winemakers will not recover from this disaster. But for the ones that do, in a decade, it’s likely the entire region will be even more productive, and more adaptable than before.

This is the same tension we face in business. We cling to systems, products, even teams—not because they’re still effective, but because we’ve invested so much in them. It’s the classic sunk cost fallacy, where our past investments become psychological anchors, making it harder to pivot even when the signs are clear.

Disruption is painful, but it can also be a gift. It severs old attachments and exposes yesterday’s logic. And as Peter Drucker wisely said, “The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence—it is to act with yesterday’s logic.”

The Path Forward

Adaptation isn't about avoiding change—it's about embracing it. The companies that survive aren't those that resist transformation but those that lead through it.

So as you reflect, ask yourself:

• What assumptions am I making that might not be true?
• Where am I holding onto outdated business models?
• Am I diversified enough to weather the loss of key customers or markets?
• Where could I replant with something better?

The landscape has shifted. This isn’t a moment to look backward with nostalgia, clinging to what once worked. It’s a call to step forward with courage—to meet change not with resistance, but with resolve.

The path ahead doesn’t demand fearlessness. It asks for something deeper: the willingness to confront fear and turn it into fuel. It’s that tension—the discomfort of uncertainty—that so often becomes the catalyst for reinvention.

I believe we are on the cusp of an explosion of meaningful, value-creating enterprises. The most impactful businesses to emerge from this era won’t be the biggest or the most established—they’ll be the most adaptable. The ones that choose evolution over preservation. The ones that view crisis not as an obstacle, but as an invitation to rethink, redesign, and reimagine what’s possible.

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