Why The Right Idea At The Wrong Time Is The Wrong Idea

Written By: Brad Pedersen

Last week I told the story about how in 2008 I was at an important crossroads. How after years of scaling a business I was forced to confront the brutal facts that the business model was no longer valid.

It was a time when I had to decide either to let my ego drive my decisions and double down based on sunk cost biases, or move onto greener pastures.

In the end, the decision to quit freed up not only resources but my creative energies to refocus and to find a better opportunity.  That decision led to outcomes that were infinitely better and more meaningful than if I had tried to stay the course.

What I did not explain is this: not all ideas are equal.  More importantly, the right idea at the wrong time is still the wrong idea.  

Momentum Requires Tailwinds

Over my several entrepreneurial adventures (most of which did not work), what I have come to learn is that the timing of an idea is ultimately what is most important in determining outcome.

One of the hardest truths I've had to accept is this; momentum requires the tailwinds of timing to propel an idea forward.

For a startup to succeed, there are four essential ingredients:

1. A founder who is hungry, humble, and smart
2. An idea that is different, not just better
3. A high-performing team
4. Calibrated execution

However, beyond those four elements, there's a fifth that's rarely talked about: luck.  Luck is simply the right idea at the right time and it has the most exponential impact on the results. You can be an ambitious founder with a creative strategy, have a brilliant team with flawless execution, but if your timing is off, the results will still be lacklustre.

When Timing Works In Your Favor

Figma is a perfect example of a startup that had all four essential ingredients and the right timing. Founded by Dylan Field and Evan Wallace in 2012, Figma spent four years building quietly before launching publicly in 2016, just as remote work, collaborative workflows, and browser-based tools began gaining traction. That well-timed debut positioned them perfectly for the wave of adoption that followed the work from home trend accelerated by Covid. 

Their success wasn’t just about finding product-market fit, it was a case study in disciplined alignment of the four necessary ingredients. Dylan Field embodied the ideal founder profile: hungry, humble, and smart. The idea itself wasn’t just a better design tool, it was fundamentally different: real-time, multiplayer, and cloud-native. They built a high-performing team capable of executing against that bold vision, and perhaps most importantly, their execution was calibrated, not rushed. They waited until both the product and the market were ready and when those things lined up, they didn’t just grow; they exploded.

They had a bold insight and committed fully to it, but there was no way to predict that a black swan event like Covid would accelerate their momentum instead of stalling it. What could have been a setback became a powerful tailwind. By 2022, their growth was so remarkable that Adobe moved to acquire the company for over $20 billion.

When Timing Works Against You

Contrast that with eToys, an online toy retailer that launched in the late 1990s with a visionary idea, strong leadership, and a massive IPO. On paper, it had all of the right ingredients and should have been destined for greatness. However their timing was off.

eToys attempted to build a digital-first toy empire before the world was ready; at a time when broadband internet was limited, consumer trust in e-commerce was still developing, and modern logistics systems had yet to mature.

The result? 

They struggled to meet holiday demand, burned through their capital, and ultimately collapsed in the aftermath of the dot-com crash. Unlike Figma, which waited patiently for the market to align, eToys tried to force a future that wasn’t ready, and paid the price.

However…It Takes More Than Luck

While timing is essential for gaining traction, it takes far more than luck to build something that ultimately lasts. Right timing paired with the wrong vision or poor execution can inflate a business quickly, but it won’t create something that is durable and enduring.

Take Clubhouse, a company that caught lightning in a bottle during the pandemic. Launched in 2020, it tapped into a deep craving for connection and real-time conversation, and within a year, its valuation soared to $4 billion. But as the world reopened and digital behaviors evolved, engagement dropped as quickly as it had surged. The initial attention was real, but without a solid product foundation, strong leadership, and disciplined execution, the momentum faded just as fast.

The luck of perfect timing can spark the initial growth, but it won’t sustain a business over time. Lasting success depends on having not only the right timing but ultimately for all four essential elements to be in place.  It becomes the foundation that turns a surge into something truly enduring.

A Nine-Figure Lesson in Luck

This past summer I had the opportunity to hang out with my good friends Trent and Ria Kitsch at an event they hosted.

For those of you who don't know this power couple, they are amazing people who have built several incredible businesses, most notably Saxx underwear.

Trent told the story of how they had launched a cannabis brand ahead of its legalization in Canada. Trend and Ria are hungry, humble and smart entrepreneurs and because of their smart and different positioning, they had attracted interest from a competitor who ultimately acquired the business for a nine-figure number. As part of the acquisition, they were given an opportunity to roll some of the equity into the future company, which they chose to do. Within a few months, the company that had acquired them was in turn acquired, and the result is that it more than doubled the size of the deal. 

What I appreciated most about how Trent and Ria told the story is they said that yes, they certainly had to be playing the game and be smart with how they executed. However, they both said that the outcome was something that was completely out of their control and came down to just being incredibly lucky. They were in the right place at the right time with the right opportunity and it resulted in an ordinary outcome.

If you want to know more about Trent and Ria I encourage you to check out their newsletter: The Fountain.

The Art of Knowing When to Quit

In hindsight, my first business had many of the right ingredients; drive, creativity, and a great team. But as I have come to learn, timing can be a quiet force that shifts like the wind. The tailwinds that once pushed us forward eventually changed direction. Before we realized it, we were sprinting into the wind, running full speed and yet losing ground.

This is where knowing when to quit becomes an art form.

You have to distinguish between resistance from building something difficult but viable, and resistance from forcing something that is mistimed. Eventually, I had to face the fact that this wasn't about execution; the market had shifted and we hadn't.

We had three options: persist, pivot, or "put a bullet in it."

If it's a timing issue, unless you have a resilient team and a giant balance sheet, then in my opinion it's better to shut it down and save resources for something new rather than try to persevere.

W.C. Fields said it best: "If at first you don't succeed, try, try again. Then quit. There's no use being a damn fool about it."

The Uncomfortable Truth About Success

As much as we want to take ownership of the results based on how hard we and our team work and how smart we are, while those are critical factors, the truth is the biggest factor to impact the outcome will be if we timed it right.

And sometimes that means staying in the game simply long enough to get lucky.  

Timing might be slightly off, but if you have a sense of the market and stay in the game long enough, you can give yourself a chance.

I think about this idea as a useful lens for my most meaningful pursuits in life.

My most impactful and unexpected breakthroughs have often been found on the other side of long periods of methodical, daily effort. However the truth is that the breakthrough may never come; it is never a sure thing.

Success requires a willingness to live with uncertainty. It asks you to keep showing up day after day, without guarantees or applause. In my experience, the ones who ultimately win are those who can tolerate the unknown the longest, and that tolerance is fueled by an intrinsic energy for the game itself.

Dylan Field and Evan Wallace had a powerful insight, but more importantly, they had the stamina to keep building through four quiet years when external validation was scarce. Their motivation wasn’t driven by headlines or hype; it came from a deeper commitment to the work. 

So the real question is this: if you have an insight, do you also have the energy and patience to stay in the game until the timing is right?

This week ask yourself:

Am I forcing something that's mistimed, or building something difficult but viable?

Do I have an intrinsic energy for the game I'm playing, or am I chasing external validation?

Am I willing to embrace uncertainty and show up every day with no guarantees?

You have intuition and it’s worth trusting. But intuition alone doesn’t guarantee your timing will be right. The only thing you can truly control is whether you choose to stay in the game, and if you do, the mindset and readiness you bring when (if) luck finally decides to show up.

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